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CNN: Obama’s NC Math Problem

admin — Fri, 18 May 2012 15:58:23 +0000

Obama’s North Carolina math problem

By Peter Hamby, CNN Political Reporter

President Barack Obama courts young voters last month at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

President Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008 election by less than 15,000 votes
GOP strategists predict an aggressive Mitt Romney can win state by "substantial margin"
Finding new voters will be critical for the Obama team if it hopes to repeat 2008 success
Democratic consultant: "An essential part of Obama winning here is to reignite the spark"

Raleigh, North Carolina (CNN) — The state Democratic Party here is consumed with an ongoing sex scandal. The embattled governor is so unpopular she decided not to run for a second term. And supporters of same-sex marriage were dealt a crushing defeat at the ballot box last week.

But the biggest challenge in North Carolina this year for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats can be boiled down to something simpler: math.

Everything that could have gone right for Obama in 2008 did go right, and yet he still only won North Carolina by just 14,177 votes — a tiny sliver of the 4.2 million cast statewide.

Thanks to his campaign’s striking ability to expand the Democratic electorate, Obama even managed to win the state while losing independents to John McCain.

Volunteers blitzed college campuses and dominated the early voting game. New African-American voters were registered in huge numbers. Obama also performed better among white voters than both John Kerry and Al Gore. Crucially, Republican turnout fell off dramatically from 2004.

Obama world read the victory as a promising sign of Democratic realignment in the South and rewarded the Tar Heel State with the Democratic National Convention, which will take place in Charlotte in September.

Today, though, it’s hard to find a Democrat in the capital of Raleigh who believes the president, saddled with the burdens of governing and a sputtering economy, can stir the enthusiasm of 2008 and repeat his near-flawless North Carolina performance.

"My heart says he will win here, but my head says it’s going to be awfully tough for him," said Gary Pearce, a longtime Democratic consultant and adviser to former Gov. Jim Hunt. "This is a tight state for him. Race is part of it. The economy is a big problem. Four years ago he was new, he was exciting. He was hope and change. That has worn off now. The glow is gone. It’s going to be tough for him to catch magic in the bottle again."

Obama’s fading luster has put enormous pressure on his team not only to mobilize the existing Democratic base but also to find new voters.

The president’s path to victory becomes even narrower if Republican turnout grows from the dismal 31% showing of 2008 — a certainty according to political operatives in Raleigh who watched in 2010 as a fired-up GOP captured both houses of the state Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.

North Carolina is fast becoming a proving ground for advisers to Obama and Mitt Romney, who stress that the presidential race will be decided by the slimmest of margins in a handful of states.

Turning out voters is key

"The election is going to be won by the candidate who gets their voters to the polls," said state Rep. Alma Adams, a Democrat from Greensboro and the chairwoman of the Legislative Black Caucus. "That’s where the election is going to be determined. We need to focus on the people who are registered to vote and get them active and participating in the process."

A popular talking point among Republicans here involves the celebrated "youth vote" of 2008, a key part of the Obama coalition.

The share of voters under 30 was the same in North Carolina as it was nationally.

But thanks in large part to the stout organizational efforts of the Obama campaign on more than 100 college campuses across the state, voters between 18 and 29 chose Obama over McCain by a stunning 74%-26% margin.

If that split more closely resembled the youth vote nationwide — 66% for Obama and 32% for McCain — roughly 60,000 North Carolina votes would have swung to McCain, handing him the state and its 15 electoral votes.

Even the slightest shifts in turnout can determine the race, a prospect relished by Republicans, who were hamstrung in the last election by dampened conservative enthusiasm and a superior Democratic ground game.

"McCain did very little in North Carolina, and Obama did everything," said Dee Stewart, a Republican strategist in Raleigh. "The McCain campaign’s presence was minimal at best. While that was happening, the Obama campaign was knocking on the doors, not only of swing voters but of solid Republican voters."

The Romney campaign recently moved a state director to Raleigh and is piggybacking off the early joint efforts of the North Carolina GOP and the Republican National Committee, which have opened four field offices so far.

Outsourcing of jobs could be problem for Romney

Romney, though, has his own challenges to overcome.

The Obama campaign has painted the former Bain Capital executive as a corporate raider who shut down factories for the sake of a profit, a message they are pushing aggressively in a state racked by the outsourcing of textile and furniture manufacturing jobs.

To win statewide in North Carolina, Republicans must sway evangelicals and "Jessecrats" — those white cultural conservatives loyal to the late Sen. Jesse Helms — in the eastern part of the state.

But the former Massachusetts governor struggled to rally conservatives throughout the Republican primaries, particularly in the South.

Adams, the Legislative Black Caucus leader, said Romney’s Mormon faith might be a drag among among the social conservatives who showed up in large numbers last week to vote for a constitutional amendment defining marriage solely as between a man and a woman.

Opinion: N.C. gay marriage vote spells the end of Obama

"If they look at that awful ballot amendment, and they compare that with his faith, I don’t think people will be OK with it," Adams said. "From what I understand about the Mormon faith you can have multiple wives. That’s sort of a contradiction. There are questions about who Romney is and what he believes in terms of that particular issue."

Still, Republicans in the state said that antipathy toward Obama will be enough to galvanize the conservative base.

Stewart, the GOP strategist, calmly predicted that if Romney runs the aggressive campaign in North Carolina that McCain did not — and focuses on the economy and suburban voters — "he should win by a substantial margin."

Romney looks for advantage in North Carolina

That forecast is not limited to Republicans.

One senior North Carolina Democrat, who insisted on anonymity because of involvement in multiple statewide and legislative campaigns, said private polling in a variety of state races shows that white voters and independents are trending toward Republicans in an alarming way.

"The biggest thing Obama has got to overcome here is his problems with white independent voters, those middle-of-the-road voters," the Democrat said. "If he doesn’t, we are going to get our asses whipped like I have never seen in my 20 years of doing politics."

The Democrat predicted a "bloodbath" for the party in November if those numbers fail to tighten.

Holding the convention in Charlotte, this person said, might make for an exciting week but will do little to push the state in Obama’s direction: "I’m glad that it’s here for sheer state pride, but is it going to make much difference at Wilber’s Barbecue in Goldsboro?"

Finding new voters critical for Obama’s chances

Obama won 35% of North Carolina whites in 2008, a number most Democrats say he needs to come close to matching again if he hopes to win the state, even with the help of a growing minority population that could give him some numerical breathing room.

And yet Republicans and Democrats agree that if any campaign can overcome the daunting arithmetic, it’s Obama’s.

His campaign excelled here in 2008 as it worked college campuses and African-American communities hard, capitalizing on early voting and same-day registration to bank a significant number of votes before Election Day.

Obama for America has 15 field offices around the state. More are slated to open in the coming months. Some organizers never left the state after 2008, and the campaign hired 22 new staffers last month.

Campaign volunteers also went to work under the radar in several local campaigns last year — including the Charlotte mayor’s race and school board races in populous Wake County — to elect friendly Democrats and identify new voters.

Finding those new voters will be critical for the Obama team as they try to grow the electorate from 2008, and the steady North Carolina population boom offers a fertile hunting ground.

In April alone, the campaign registered 15,000 new voters.

"Kids who were freshmen and sophomores in college in 2008 are gone, they are not on campus anymore," said Scott Falmlen, a Democratic consultant advising gubernatorial candidate Walter Dalton. "But the upside is that you also have a whole new crop of students to register and organize and motivate. And if the campaign can do that, and they certainly have the infrastructure in place to do it, they will reap a lot of votes."

How Obama is using student loan issue to recapture the youth vote

Out-of-staters continue to flock to the financial hub of Charlotte, home to Bank of America, and to the Raleigh-Durham area for jobs in the high-tech and pharmaceutical sectors.

More than half the North Carolina vote is concentrated in 13 counties along the Interstate 85 corridor, and those areas have grown dramatically since Obama won in 2008.

Nearly 1 million people will reside in Charlotte’s Mecklenburg County — the state’s largest — by the end of this year, according to estimates from the Office of State Budget and Management. That’s up from a population of 888,730 in 2008.

In Wake County, which encompasses Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill, the population has jumped by nearly 100,000 over the same four-year span.

Though the rural-to-urban trend has defined the state’s politics over the last decade, some Democrats said that Obama’s organization can only take him so far in a state with decidedly moderate tendencies and a 9.7% unemployment rate — the fourth highest in the nation.

"I don’t think mechanics alone do it," said Pearce, the former Hunt adviser. "An essential part of Obama winning here is to reignite the spark. Idealism, hope, whatever it is. He had an ability to inspire last time. Without that, he can’t win."

NC Workers Lose Hope Under Obama’s Failed Economic Policies

admin — Fri, 18 May 2012 15:37:15 +0000

The new North Carolina state jobs numbers out today only further highlight President Obama’s broken promises on jobs. Nearly 11,200 workers in North Carolina simply gave up and stopped looking for work, which mirrors the national problems of persistent long-term unemployment that are at their highest levels since 1981. An unemployment rate that is declining solely due to people leaving the workforce is not progress, nor does it reflect well on the policies of President Obama.

Background:

In April, North Carolina’s Unemployment Rate Dropped From 9.7 Percent To 9.4 Percent Primarily Due To Workers Leaving The Labor Force, As The State Lost 1,300 Jobs And The Labor Force Shrank By 11,200 Workers. (The Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 5/18/12)

· UNC-Chapel Hill Global Research Institute: For North Carolina, Economic Recovery “Is Still Shrouded In Shadows.” “After some very tough sledding, the American economy has been improving over recent months. The unemployment rate has fallen, the manufacturing sector has been picking up, the stock market has headed north and the savings rate is rising, along with consumer confidence… The picture in North Carolina, alas, is still shrouded in shadows. Not surprising, given the fact that the so-called Great Recession of 2007-2008 hit our already economically beleaguered state particularly hard. Borrowing from Robert Frost, we might say that for North Carolina, this recession proved extremely unlovely, dark, and deep.” (Peter A. Coclanis and Daniel P. Gitterman, Op-Ed, “Hardship Lingers In North Carolina,” The Charlotte News Observer, 3/12/12)

Another Day, Another Mess for NC Democrats

admin — Wed, 16 May 2012 00:48:01 +0000

Dems In Disarray
In North Carolina, Democrats Embraced Their Scandal-Plagued Chairman As Their Convention Faces Greater Scrutiny

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THIS WEEKEND, “BESIEGED” NORTH CAROLINA STATE DEMOCRAT PARTY CHAIRMAN DAVID PARKER WAS REINSTATED DESPITE ALLEGATIONS HE COVERED UP SEXUAL HARASSMENT

Politico: “North Carolina’s Democratic Drama” (Charles Mahtesian, “North Carolina’s Democratic Drama,” Politico, 5/12/12)

Parker, Despite Allegations Of Covering Up Sexual Harassment, Said He Would Remain In His Post After The Party’s Ruling Committee Indicated That They Would Not Accept His Resignation. “David Parker, the besieged state Democratic Party chairman, said Saturday that he would remain in his post after the party’s ruling committee voted not to accept his resignation. In doing so, Parker defied pressure from party leaders from Washington to Raleigh to step aside because of the concern that his handling of sexual harassment accusations by a staffer would damage the party’s efforts in the fall.” (Rob Christensen, “Democratic Party Chairman Resigns, Then Unresigns,” The News & Observer, 5/12/12)

· Parker Agreed To Stay On After A Body Of Party Activists From Across The State Voted 269-203 Not To Accept His Resignation. “The change in heart came after the Executive Committee, a body made up of party activists from across the state, voted 269-203 not to accept his resignation.” (Rob Christensen, “Democratic Party Chairman Resigns, Then Unresigns,” The News & Observer, 5/12/12)

Parker: “This Is Our Democratic Party. These Are Our Ideals.” (WRAL News, 5/12/12)

News & Observer: “Democratic Party Chairman Resigns, Then Unresigns” (Rob Christensen, “Democratic Party Chairman Resigns, Then Unresigns,” The News & Observer, 5/12/12)

Activists Supported Parker So They Could Continue Receiving State Taxpayer Funds

The News & Observer Headline: “Why Do Democratic Activists Want Parker? Follow The Money” (“Why Do Democratic Activists Want Parker? Follow The Money.” The News & Observer, 5/13/12)

But “Without Him As Chairman, Local Party Activists Weren’t Guaranteed To Get Their Money – A $1 Million Pot Of State Tax Dollars…” “Without him as chairman, local party activists weren’t guaranteed to get their money – a $1 million pot of state tax dollars split among them for get-out-the-vote operations, often without much scrutiny as to how it is spent. State political parties receive this money when taxpayers check a box to give $3 from state tax dollars to the political party of their choice.” (“Why Do Democratic Activists Want Parker? Follow The Money.” The News & Observer, 5/13/12)

Memo From Democrat Activist: “While Couched In Terms Of A Fake Sexual-Harassment ‘Scandal’ Where No Sex Occurred, The Ulterior Motive Is To Get Rid Of Parker, Who Has Insisted That Tax Checkoff Funds Be Distributed Fairly, Statewide.” “‘While couched in terms of a fake sexual-harassment ‘scandal’ where no sex occurred, the ulterior motive is to get rid of Parker, who has insisted that tax checkoff funds be distributed fairly, statewide,’ states a memo to Democrats included in an email newsletter from party activist Gene Messick before Saturday’s vote.” (“Why Do Democratic Activists Want Parker? Follow The Money.” The News & Observer, 5/13/12)

Democratic Executive Committee Member Bill Franklin, Who Was Against Parker’s Resignation: Parker Ensured That District Party Chairs Would Get The Money. “Democratic executive committee member Bill Franklin, who suggested keeping Parker at the helm, said in an email to activists that the party’s district chairs controlled the funds but top party leaders worked to change state law to weaken that power. Parker pledged to return order and make sure the district chairs get the money – thus, endearing himself to the activists.” (“Why Do Democratic Activists Want Parker? Follow The Money.” The News & Observer, 5/13/12)

As Much As $1.3 Million In Taxpayer Dollars Was At Stake. “The tax checkoff this year could amount to $1.3 million, the email says.” (“Why Do Democratic Activists Want Parker? Follow The Money.” The News & Observer, 5/13/12)

Democratic Official June Mabry: “The Party Stood Behind A Chair That Stood Behind The Party.” (WRAL News, 5/12/12)

KEY DEMOCRATS, NEWSPAPERS SHARPLY CRITICAL OF DEMOCRATS’ DECISION

Parker Stayed On Despite Pleas From State And National Democratic Officials To Leave His Post. “The move came despite an effort by party leaders including Gov. Bev Perdue, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Walter Dalton, key state elected leaders, the national party, and the White House to ease Parker out.” (Rob Christensen, “Democratic Party Chairman Resigns, Then Unresigns,” The News & Observer, 5/12/12)

Lt. Governor And Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee Walter Dalton (D-NC) Is “Surprised And Disappointed.” “The lieutenant governor is surprised and disappointed,’ Dalton’s campaign said in statement. ‘David Parker had assured him that he would resign and assist in the smooth transition to a new chair. Clearly that did not happen.’” (Rob Christensen, “Democratic Party Chairman Resigns, Then Unresigns,” The News & Observer, 5/12/12)

· Gov. Bev Perdue (D-NC) Is Supporting Lt. Governor Dalton In However He Wishes To Handle The Controversy. “‘I’m focused on investing in education and passing my other budget priorities,’ she said in a statement. ‘Walter Dalton is the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, and I’ll support him in however he wants to handle the matter.’” (John Frank, “Gov. Perdue Puts Democratic Party Mess At Walter Dalton’s Feet,” The News & Observer, 5/14/12)

Pittsboro Mayor Randy Voller (D): “This Is A Circus Without The Elephants.” “Added Pittsboro Mayor Randy Voller: ‘This is a circus without the elephants. You’ve got about everything else here.’” (Rob Christensen, “Democratic Party Chairman Resigns, Then Unresigns,” The News & Observer, 5/12/12)

ALL THIS ADDS TO OBAMA’S DIMMING CHANCES AT WINNING THE STATE

The Associated Press: “Once A Bright Spot For President Barack Obama, North Carolina Is Now More Like A Political Migraine…” “Once a bright spot for President Barack Obama, North Carolina is now more like a political migraine less than four months before Democrats open the party’s national convention in Charlotte.” (“Their Convention In Charlotte Just Months Away, Democrats Cope With Political Headaches In NC,” Associated Press, 5/12/12)

More Than A Dozen Trade Unions Are Boycotting The Democratic National Convention In Charlotte, And Some Plan To Protest At The Event. “Many labor leaders were upset that the convention would be held in a state that offers few protections for workers and in a city with no union hotels. While some unions plan to attend, more than a dozen trade unions are boycotting. Union protests also are planned for convention week.” (“Their Convention In Charlotte Just Months Away, Democrats Cope With Political Headaches In NC,” Associated Press, 5/12/12)

“State Unemployment Was 9.7 Percent In March, Well Above The National Average Of 8.2 Percent That Month, And It’s Much Higher In Some Rural Counties.” (“Their Convention In Charlotte Just Months Away, Democrats Cope With Political Headaches In NC,” Associated Press, 5/12/12)

The Sitting Gov. Bev Perdue’s (D-NC) Sagging Poll Numbers Led Her To Not Seek Re-Election. “With sagging poll numbers, Perdue announced in January that she would not seek a second term. Her decision came on the heels of bruising budget battles with the GOP-controlled Legislature. Republicans in 2010 captured the Legislature for the first time in 140 years.” (“Their Convention In Charlotte Just Months Away, Democrats Cope With Political Headaches In NC,” Associated Press, 5/12/12)

As The Democratic National Convention Continued To Face Criticisms For Recruiting Corporate Contributions

On Friday, The Wall Street Journal Highlighted That Despite Democrats’ Pledge To Ban Corporate Donations For The Convention, They Are Using A Special Fund That Allows Millions In Corporate Contributions. “Democrats have trumpeted their ban on corporate donations to their national convention this summer, saying that it shows they are free from the influence of special interests. But through a special fund, convention planners are accepting millions of dollars in corporate contributions to help pay for many of the activities outside the convention hall—as well as some expenses directly related to the event.” (Brody Mullins and Peter Nicholas, “Democrats’ Fund Taps Corporate Donors For Convention,” The Wall Street Journal, 5/11/12)

The Fund Is Called New American City Inc., And Will Raise Over $10 Million To Cover Administrative Costs And Celebrity Entertainment. “The fund, called New American City Inc., plans to raise more than $10 million to cover convention expenses, including salaries for convention workers, promotional materials and overhead. Costs also include entertainment for delegates and others, such as a welcoming party for the media that will feature celebrity performers and as many as 10,000 guests.” (Brody Mullins and Peter Nicholas, “Democrats’ Fund Taps Corporate Donors For Convention,” The Wall Street Journal, 5/11/12)

The Three Largest Donors To New American City Inc. Are Wells Fargo, Bank Of America Corp., And Duke Energy Corp. “The three largest donors to New American City say their donations are civic contributions to help their city. Bank of America, like Duke Energy, is based in Charlotte. Wells Fargo is based in San Francisco but recently acquired Wachovia Corp., which was based in Charlotte.” (Brody Mullins and Peter Nicholas, “Democrats’ Fund Taps Corporate Donors For Convention,” The Wall Street Journal, 5/11/12)

Duke Energy Corp. CEO And Co-Chairman Of The Host Committee James E. Rogers Said Much Of His Own Company’s Money Went To The Convention Before Its Planners Banned Corporate Contributions. “One contributor to the New American City fund, Charlotte-based Duke Energy, also has made available a $10 million line of credit for the event. Duke Energy’s chairman, president and CEO, James E. Rogers, is co-chairman of the host committee. Mr. Rogers said "a lot of the money" donated by the company had been given before convention planners banned corporate contributions.” (Brody Mullins and Peter Nicholas, “Democrats’ Fund Taps Corporate Donors For Convention,” The Wall Street Journal, 5/11/12)

The overriding question in this particular mess though is, when will DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the Obama Campaign denounce Chairman David Parker’s decision to retain his chairmanship at the NCDP and call for his immediate resignation?

Another Day, Another Mess for NC Democrats

admin — Wed, 16 May 2012 00:29:08 +0000